The Meteorological Department said on Thursday that the southwest monsoon is likely to enter the withdrawal phase in the first week of September, about a fortnight before the normal date.
The normal date of withdrawal of the southwest monsoon is September 17. However, the actual withdrawal of the southwest monsoon usually occurs either earlier or later, given the dynamic nature of the weather systems.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in the extended range forecast issued on Thursday, “Conditions likely to become favourable for the onset of withdrawal of southwest monsoon from some parts of northwest India during the week beginning September 1.”
Monsoon rains across the country have been nine percent above normal, but states such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Manipur have recorded more than 40 percent shortfall from the long period average, leaving farmers in trouble.
Uttar Pradesh and Manipur have received 44 percent less rainfall than the long period average, followed by Bihar (41 percent), Delhi (28 percent), Tripura and Jharkhand (26 percent each).
Till August 18, farmers had sown paddy in 343.7 lakh hectares, which is 30.92 lakh hectares less than last year and 53.36 lakh hectares less than the normal sowing for the period under review.
Less coverage for rice sown area has been reported from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Odisha, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Chhattisgarh, which are considered the rice bowl of the country.
The sowing of pulses, especially tur or tur, and groundnut has also declined due to torrential rains.
For the Met Office, the monsoon season begins on June 1 and ends on September 30.
Last year, the monsoon entered the withdrawal phase on October 6, which was a good 19 days after the normal date of September 17.
According to the IMD data, monsoon withdrawal started on September 28 in 2020, October 9 in 2019, September 29 in 2018, September 27 in 2017 and September 15 in 2016.