The Arctic region is poised to become the next global geopolitical hotspot as a result of climate change, according to analysts
In addition to being a hotspot in terms of climate and geopolitical terms, the Arctic is now becoming one of the following international hotspots, owing to the melting of sea ice releasing untapped resources, said analysts at a day-long seminar on ‘India and the Arctic: Prospects for Partnership’ organized by the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) in collaboration with the Ministry of Earth Sciences.
According to the 2017 SWIPA assessment (Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic), the Arctic climate is changing, becoming wetter, warmer, and more variable. In addition, scientists have observed that the temperature of the Arctic surface air is increasing twice as fast as that of the rest of the world and that the Arctic region has been warmer than at any time in history from 2011 to 2021. Additionally, the extent and density of the sea ice have declined. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the time of sea ice decreased by 12.3% per decade during September. Dr S Rajan, India’s representative to the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (CLCS), stated that this has many implications. According to him, 8-10% of the monsoon variability in India has been attributed to this Arctic sea melt during the summer monsoon season, often referred to as the country’s finance minister.
Sandip Rashmikant Oza, senior scientist, Arctic and Antarctic Cryosphere Sciences and Applications in Remote Sensing and GIS Technology, Space Application Centre, Ahmedabad, reported that 0.5 meters of sea level rise were attributable to ice melt in Greenland alone. Additionally, Dr Oza noted that this ice melt has opened up new sea passages for international shipping on the northwestern and north-eastern coasts.
The director of the Vivekananda Foundation, Dr Arvind Gupta, said on Tuesday that recent geopolitical developments, notably the Ukraine war, will alter the equations in the Arctic.
“Russia is currently chairing the Arctic Council, with the other members of NATO. As a result of Russia’s isolation, the Arctic Council has, in effect, ceased to exist, and the equations around this issue will change. It is necessary to reevaluate the conceptual framework of the Arctic region’s governance structure. There is a great deal of Russian-Chinese cooperation in the Arctic, and their influence in the region is only increasing. As well as the United States, the Nordic countries are greatly interested in the region. As a military hub, the region has always been a priority, but we should expect increased militarization – how this will affect us remains to be seen,” Dr Gupta said.
According to Dr Gupta, 13% of the region’s oil reserves remain untapped, while 30% of its gas reserves remain untouched.
While Dr Uttam Sinha is the center coordinator of the MP-IDSA’s Non-Traditional Security Centre, he stated that with China’s increasing energy demand, it is already taking steps to gain greater control over the Arctic region, investing heavily in infrastructure. According to Dr Sinha, the Chinese have been trying to acquire a large amount of land in the area.
