Climate risk: nine Indian states are among the most susceptible in the world.
The vast majority (80%) of the 50 provinces facing the greatest climate risk to their physical infrastructure by 2050 are located in China, the United States, and India, according to a ranking published on Monday by Cross Dependency Initiative, an organisation that specialises in climate risk analytics for companies, banks, and regions.
The rating reveals that the most vulnerable states in India are Punjab, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Kerala, and Assam, and that India’s commercial hub, Mumbai, is at high risk. China has 26 high-risk states, while the United States has only five.
The rating of Gross Domestic Climate Risk reflects the physical danger to the built infrastructure from eight climate change hazards: riverine and surface flooding, coastal inundation (coastal flooding), severe heat, forest fire, soil movement (drought-related), extreme wind, and freeze thaw. Using global climate models, local weather and environmental data, and engineering archetypes, the analysis calculates likely damage to the built environment under the RCP 8.5 scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – a high emission scenario consistent with average global warming over 3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures by the end of the century.
Gross Domestic Climate Risk ranking by XDI is a stark reminder that climate change will disrupt development across the global south. The report states that under high emissions scenarios (around four-degree rise), 9 Indian states that are ranked within the top 50 most at-risk states and provinces will experience an average 110% increase in damage risk by 2050.
The most affected provinces in China, whose states dominate the list, are centred in the east and south, along the floodplains and deltas of the Yangtze and Pearl Rivers. The economically significant states of California, Texas, and Florida are the most affected in the United States. Brazil, Pakistan, and Indonesia are also represented by multiple provinces and states among the top 50.
The ranking data can be relevant for investors, as densely populated locations coincide with strong economic activity and property wealth. According to a statement released by XDI (Cross Dependency Initiative) on Monday, it can inform climate-resilient investment alongside adaption measures and infrastructure planning by state and provincial governments.
